A Bangkok fintech sent three analysts to Retention Horizon after a reactivation campaign looked “successful” in DAU and failed in 28-day return. Their series mixed a new onboarding event with an older login fire.
In week three they split the events, marked payday Fridays, and forecasted return without the campaign days. The miss against actuals shrank from roughly a fifth of daily actives to a band their PM could live with. They did not attribute the whole gain to the course — a store listing change landed in the same month — but the memo became the artefact leadership asked for in the next review.